USDA will release two major reports at 11 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, June 30: the results from the 2026 Acreage survey, as well as the quarterly Grain Stocks report with inventories as of June 1. The reports have the potential to be market-movers, averaging 20- and 34-cent price reactions over the past five years for corn and soybeans, respectively.

ACREAGE

With the 2026 corn and soybean crops off to a decent start this growing season, and USDA already forecasting the second-largest crops on record for each, traders will be interested to see how USDA's acreage findings may influence the new-crop balance sheets moving forward. Since 2000, the June Acreage survey has underestimated USDA's final corn acreage figure only seven times, but three of those instances have occurred in the past five years. Last year's miss stands out as the highest on record, as corn acreage eventually increased a staggering 3.6 million acres (ma) above and beyond the June forecast. Following historically low response rates in the March survey this year, USDA reportedly surveyed more producers this time around, which should (hopefully) result in a reliable figure on Tuesday. For soybeans, the June report carries the same tendency to overestimate compared to the eventual final acreage number, with acreage increasing on only three occurrences over the past decade, but with two of those in the past three years.

Since the March 31 Intentions report, the price relationship between new-crop soybeans and new-crop corn has vastly favored soybeans, with the ratio of November to December futures expanding from 2.33 in the middle of March to 2.61 as of writing this. A popular question through the spring, as well, was how rising fertilizer costs, as a result of the standoff between the U.S. and Iran in the Persian Gulf, would influence field decisions through planting. Intuition would suggest that some producers may have leaned toward soybeans to reduce nitrogen requirements. For Tuesday, the 16 firms surveyed by Dow Jones, on average, see corn acreage falling 401,000 acres from the March guess to 94.94 ma. Naturally, the expectation among analysts is that the revision lower to corn area will be reflected in higher soybean acreage, with an average trade estimate of 85.37 ma. My personal forecasts for 2026 acreage are for 94.8 ma of corn and 86.4 ma of soybeans, so right in the wheelhouse of pre-report estimates for corn, but a touch higher for soybeans.

As for wheat, USDA will take another look at acreage on Tuesday, with any changes likely to come via spring and durum area. It's difficult to tell looking at the futures board recently, but just over a month ago, new-crop September Minneapolis futures sat among two-year highs and briefly surpassed $7.50. According to USDA, over 70% of spring wheat acres in the U.S. were planted by mid-May when prices began falling sharply. While high prices through most of the planting season may have influenced slightly higher area compared to the March survey, spring wheat acres in the U.S. remain in a lower trend historically, and high fertilizer cost ideas through planting may have also played a role. The average trade guess for Tuesday is for 9.438 ma of spring wheat and 1.969 ma of durum, both slightly higher than in March. Assuming winter wheat area remains unchanged at 32.410 ma, total U.S. wheat area in 2026 will sum to 43.834 ma, still the lowest on record.

GRAIN STOCKS

Also set for release on Tuesday morning is USDA's quarterly Grain Stocks survey, which will look into grain reserves around the U.S. as of June 1, setting the stage for the final quarter of the 2025-26 corn and soybean marketing year. For corn, the previous issues of this report found record corn stock levels as of Dec. 1 and March 1. On Tuesday, the average trade guess is calling for 5.392 billion bushels (bb) of reserves as of June 1, which would be the largest for the date since 1988, if realized. I expect corn disappearance through the third quarter of the marketing year (March through May) will also challenge record highs, with my forecast being 3.6 bb of usage. My personal forecast for June 1 corn stocks is for 5.475 bb of corn to be found on hand to begin the final quarter.

For soybeans, it is very possible that usage through the third quarter will stand as a record, and over 1 bb in the quarter for the first time ever, thanks to record-high crush premiums as well as the delayed nature of the 2025-26 export program, bolstering shipments during the period. On Tuesday, analysts, on average, expect USDA to still find 1.051 bb of soybeans on hand as of June 1, which would be the largest since 2020. My personal estimate is 1.024 bb, which is directly in line with other firms' thoughts and would fit into the narrative set by the WASDE balance sheet, targeting 340 million bushels (mb) of soybean ending stocks by Sept. 1.

Lastly, wheat is unique in Tuesday's report in that the survey results for June 1 stocks will also stand as the ending stocks for the 2025-26 wheat marketing year, which ended on May 31. In turn, the figure will act to fine-tune new-crop U.S. wheat supplies amid what is penciled as a historically small harvest in 2026. For Tuesday, the analysts surveyed by Dow Jones are leaning on USDA's recent WASDE reports and see June 1 stocks landing at 935 mb, a six-year high, if realized. As for me, I am forecasting 950 mb of ending stocks for the 2025-26 season when all is finalized. My reasoning is that I believe USDA is slightly overestimating wheat exports throughout the year. Ignoring quarterly imports for a moment, the Dow Jones estimate would imply 365 mb of wheat usage through the final quarter of the marketing year, a four-year low. Total usage through the marketing year would sum to 2.03 bb and would be the strongest in five years, if true.

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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, June 30, as we take a deeper look into USDA's recent estimates and what they could mean for markets moving forward. Questions are welcome and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Tuesday's June Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks report webinar: https://ag.dtn.com/….

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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